Bank of Canada Rate Decision: What Happens on December 9, 2026?
The Bank of Canada will make its final 2026 policy rate decision on Wednesday, December 9, 2026, at 9:45 a.m. ET. The rate has sat at 2.50% since the quarter-point hike on October 28, 2026 — the first change since the October 29, 2025 cut, after seven consecutive holds. The Bank cited inflation that is higher and more persistent than expected: CPI inflation has been around 3% since April and is expected to rise to about 3.5% by the end of the year. For a Quebec household on a variable rate, every 0.25-point move is worth about $13 a month for every $100,000 owed.
Is your mortgage variable, or does your term renew in December or January? Run all three scenarios — a cut, a hold and a 0.25-point hike — in our Quebec mortgage calculator, then check the actual result on decision day on our permanent Next Bank of Canada announcement page.
What does the Bank of Canada decide on December 9, 2026?
On December 9, 2026, at 9:45 a.m. ET, the Bank of Canada announces its target for the overnight rate — the policy interest rate — for the eighth and final time this year. That rate anchors the prime rate at Canada's banks: with the policy rate at 2.50%, the big banks usually raise prime to 4.70%, or the policy rate plus 2.20 points.
Only one decision remains in 2026: December 9, released as a statement only. The previous one, on October 28, which came with a Monetary Policy Report, raised the rate to 2.50%. Before December, Statistics Canada publishes October inflation on November 16, 2026: the last major data release the Governing Council will have in hand before it decides. In other words, December 9 is not decided on December 9 — it took shape on October 28 and will also turn on November 16.
Will the policy rate fall, hold or rise on December 9?
Nobody knows the decision in advance, and this article makes no prediction: it lays out the three possible scenarios and what each one would change for you. After the October 28 hike, the Bank said a further increase could be needed, while agreeing to proceed cautiously given the uncertainties: holding at 2.50% is the starting point for the December scenarios, with no guarantee either way.
| Scenario on December 9, 2026 | Policy rate | Bank prime rate | Immediate effect in Quebec |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25-point cut | 2.25% | 4.45% | Adjustable variable payments fall, credit lines get cheaper |
| Hold | 2.50% | 4.70% | No change for variable rates or credit lines |
| 0.25-point hike | 2.75% | 4.95% | Adjustable variable payments rise, credit lines cost more |
Why did the Bank hike in October, and why is another hike still on the table? Consumer Price Index inflation reached 3.1% year over year in September 2026, released on October 19, driven mainly by gasoline, up 27.8% year over year. But excluding gasoline, inflation was only 2.2%, and the Bank's core inflation measures eased in September: 1.9% for CPI-median and 1.8% for CPI-trim. The Bank therefore has to judge whether the energy spike will spread to other prices — exactly the risk it cited on October 28, 2026, when it raised its rate to 2.50% after seven straight decisions with no change.
How much would a 0.25-point hike change your mortgage payment?
On a variable mortgage with adjustable payments, a 0.25-point move in the policy rate changes the payment by about $13 a month for every $100,000 owed, on a 25-year amortization. Prime usually follows the policy rate within days of an announcement, and your variable rate — prime minus your discount, for example — moves by the same amount.
| Variable mortgage balance | 0.25-point hike | 0.25-point cut |
|---|---|---|
| $100,000 | About +$13/month | About −$13/month |
| $300,000 | About +$40/month | About −$40/month |
| $400,000 | About +$54/month | About −$54/month |
| $500,000 | About +$67/month | About −$67/month |
Original worked example — one household, two products affected. Take a $400,000 variable mortgage balance with adjustable payments, plus a $50,000 home equity line of credit at the 4.70% prime rate, paid interest-only. The line costs $50,000 × 4.70% = $2,350 a year, or about $196 a month. A 0.25-point hike on December 9 would lift prime to 4.95%: the line would cost $2,475 a year (+$125), and the mortgage payment would rise by about $54 a month. Total for this household: roughly $64 more per month, or close to $773 over a year. With a fixed-payment variable mortgage, the payment itself would not move, but more of it would go to interest — and your trigger rate would get closer. Rerun the math with your own balances in the mortgage calculator.
Will your fixed rate move if the Bank hikes on December 9?
Not directly: fixed mortgage rates do not follow the policy rate. They follow Government of Canada bond yields — the 5-year yield for a 5-year fixed term. That yield hit a 52-week high near 3.73% on September 28, 2026, and several lenders raised fixed rates this fall even though the policy rate had not moved.
The practical takeaway: a fixed renewal offer can rise or fall on any trading day, without waiting for a Bank announcement. If your renewal is coming up, ask for a rate hold from your lender or a broker now, compare other lenders, and do not let your mortgage auto-renew: the Financial Consumer Agency of Canada notes that you do not have to renew with the same lender and that a renewal notice must arrive at least 21 days before your term ends. Our guide to Quebec mortgage renewal in 2026 walks through the steps, and the fixed-versus-variable choice comes down to your room to manoeuvre first: if a 1-point rise would stretch your budget, the certainty of a fixed rate is often worth more than today's rate gap.
What should you do before December 9, 2026, if you have a mortgage in Quebec?
Take four concrete steps in October and November rather than the night before the announcement. First, identify your rate type: variable with adjustable payments, variable with fixed payments (and your trigger rate) or fixed — the effect of December 9 is completely different in each case. Next, calculate your payment under all three scenarios with our Quebec mortgage calculator: knowing in advance that you can absorb +$54 a month on $400,000 takes the stress out of decision day.
Third, if your term ends in December, January or February, shop your renewal now: many lenders will hold a rate while you compare, and switching lenders for the same balance generally does not require passing the stress test again in most straight-switch cases. Fourth, watch the release that will matter most before then: October inflation, published on November 16. If you are preparing a purchase rather than a renewal, also add up your down payment and day-one costs with the down payment calculator: a rate move changes nothing about the CMHC premium or the welcome tax, but it changes the payment the bank will use to qualify you.
Frequently asked questions
What time does the Bank of Canada announce its rate on December 9, 2026?
The announcement is scheduled for Wednesday, December 9, 2026, at 9:45 a.m. Eastern Time, in a statement on the Bank of Canada's website. It is the eighth and final announcement of 2026. Unlike the October 28 decision, it does not come with a Monetary Policy Report: the statement explains the decision, without a full new set of projections.
What is the current Bank of Canada policy rate in October 2026?
The policy rate is 2.50%, since the quarter-point hike on October 28, 2026 — the first change since the cut on October 29, 2025, after seven consecutive holds. The bank rate is 2.75% and the deposit rate is 2.45%.
What is the prime rate, and how high is it with a 2.50% policy rate?
The prime rate is the reference rate each bank sets for its variable-rate loans, credit lines and some cards. With a 2.50% policy rate, the big banks usually raise their prime rate to 4.70%, or the policy rate plus 2.20 points. If the policy rate rises by another 0.25 points, prime usually moves to 4.95% within a few days.
How much does a 0.25% hike cost on a $400,000 mortgage?
On a $400,000 variable mortgage with adjustable payments and a 25-year amortization, a 0.25-point hike adds about $54 a month to the payment, close to $650 over a year. With fixed payments, the monthly amount does not change: a larger share of each payment goes to interest, the amortization stretches and your trigger rate gets closer.
Will my fixed rate change after the December 9, 2026 announcement?
A fixed rate you have already signed will not change until your term ends, whatever the decision. New fixed rates on offer follow Government of Canada bond yields rather than the policy rate, so they can move on any day — as in fall 2026, when the 5-year yield neared 3.73% on September 28 without any change in the policy rate.
Should I renew fixed or variable before December 9, 2026?
There is no universal right answer: a variable rate follows the policy rate starting December 9, in either direction, while a fixed rate buys certainty at a price that already reflects bond market expectations. If a 1-point rise would make your budget uncomfortable, fixed protects you. Compare both payments in our mortgage calculator before you sign.