Mortgage Renewal in Quebec in 2026: Calculating the Shock
In Quebec in 2026, renewing your mortgage without shopping around can cost you: about 60% of mortgages in Canada renew in 2025 or 2026, and the Bank of Canada estimates the average payment increase at 6% in 2026 — and 15 to 20% for five-year fixed rates signed at rock-bottom rates.
The trap is the renewal letter: your lender must send it at least 21 days before the end of your term, but nothing forces you to sign it. You can negotiate, and since November 2024 you can even switch lenders without retaking the stress test if you change neither the amount nor the amortization. Here is how to calculate your real payment shock before signing anything.
Calculate your shock before you sign: enter your remaining balance, your remaining amortization and the rate you are being offered in our mortgage calculator — then compare with the rate on your current term. The monthly gap is your real negotiating number.
How much will your payment go up at renewal in 2026?
It depends mostly on your starting rate. The Bank of Canada estimates that the average monthly payment will rise 6% for 2026 renewals, versus 10% in 2025. But that average hides wide gaps: borrowers with five-year fixed rates taken when rates were at their floor will see an average increase of 15 to 20%, while variable rates with variable payments would drop by 5 to 7% on average.
| Mortgage type at renewal, 2025-2026 | Estimated average payment change |
|---|---|
| All renewals in 2026 | +6% |
| Five-year fixed rate (signed at a floor rate) | +15 to +20% |
| Variable rate with variable payments | −5 to −7% |
These figures assume you keep the same type of loan and the same term. Your own case can be very different — which is exactly why you need to run your own calculation instead of relying on the average. On Wednesday, October 28, 2026, the Bank of Canada raised its policy rate by 0.25 points to 2.50% — the first change since October 2025 — citing inflation that is higher and more persistent than expected. The next decision is Wednesday, December 9, 2026. The hike directly affects variable rates once banks pass it through to prime (about $54 more per month on a $400,000 variable mortgage); fixed rates follow bond yields instead. Follow the schedule on our next Bank of Canada announcement page.
What does the shock look like on a $400,000 balance?
Take a case calculated for this article: a remaining balance of $400,000, 20 years of amortization left, Canadian semi-annual compounding. If your current term was at 1.79% — a common five-year fixed rate in 2021 — your payment is $1,983 a month. Here is what different renewal rates produce, as scenarios:
| Renewal rate (scenario) | Monthly payment ($400,000, 20 years left) | Gap vs 1.79% |
|---|---|---|
| 1.79% (current term, as a benchmark) | $1,983 | — |
| 3.49% | $2,313 | +$330/month |
| 3.99% | $2,415 | +$432/month (+21.8%) |
| 4.49% | $2,520 | +$537/month |
A gap of $432 a month is more than $5,100 a year to absorb in your budget. Check the effect against your real net pay with our Quebec pay calculator: that is where you see whether the shock fits or something else has to move. And if you are thinking of stretching the amortization to breathe, read the next section first: the monthly relief is paid for in interest.
Switching lenders at renewal: do you have to retake the stress test?
No, not for a straight switch. Since November 2024, OSFI exempts uninsured borrowers who transfer their mortgage to another federally regulated lender at renewal from the minimum qualifying rate, as long as they do not increase the loan amount or extend the amortization. For insured mortgages, the exemption already existed. The new lender still has to approve your application under its own criteria.
| What you do at renewal | Stress test (minimum qualifying rate) |
|---|---|
| You stay with your current lender | No |
| You switch lenders, same amount, same amortization | No (straight switch, since Nov. 2024 for uninsured) |
| You increase the amount or extend the amortization | Yes: the higher of 5.25% and your rate + 2% |
The Financial Consumer Agency of Canada is clear: start shopping a few months before your term ends, contact other lenders and brokers, and do not sign the first offer. Also ask the new lender whether it will absorb the transfer costs (discharge, registration, appraisal) — a common negotiating point. The full payment calculation, including semi-annual compounding, is in our article on Quebec mortgage payments.
What is 0.25% of negotiation really worth on your renewal?
On our $400,000 example with 20 years of amortization left, moving from 3.99% to 3.74% lowers the payment by $51 a month — from $2,415 to $2,364. Over a five-year term, the calculated interest saving is about $4,650: $72,321 of interest at 3.99% versus $67,672 at 3.74% over the first 60 payments. A single negotiation call can therefore be worth several thousand dollars.
By contrast, stretching the amortization from 20 to 25 years at 3.99% drops the payment to $2,102 — $313 less a month — but you keep the debt five years longer and pay much more interest in total. It is a last-resort tool for getting through a temporary shock, not a saving. If your budget is tight in other ways, our RRSP or FHSA guide can wait: at renewal, the priority is the rate and the payment, not a new withdrawal.
One last timing point that many borrowers miss: a rate hold from a competing lender typically protects the quoted rate while your application is processed, so starting the conversation 90 to 120 days before maturity costs nothing and removes the deadline pressure. Keep every competing offer in writing, with the term, the prepayment privileges and the transfer costs itemized — a lower rate with much smaller prepayment privileges or a collateral charge that is expensive to discharge can be the worse deal over the full term, even if the monthly payment looks slightly better on day one.
In short: never sign the renewal letter as-is. Calculate your payment at the rates you are offered, shop at least two other offers a few months before maturity, and use the stress-test-free lender switch as leverage — even if you end up staying where you are.
Frequently asked questions
When will I receive my mortgage renewal notice?
If your lender is a federally regulated institution, such as a bank, it must provide you with a renewal notice at least 21 days before the end of your term. The notice shows the remaining balance, the rate offered, the payment frequency, the term and the fees, and the offered rate cannot increase before the renewal date. But waiting for that notice to start shopping is too late: the FCAC recommends starting a few months before maturity.
By how much are mortgage payments rising on average in 2026?
The Bank of Canada estimates that the average monthly payment will rise by about 6% for 2026 renewals, compared with December 2024, after a 10% increase in 2025. Holders of five-year fixed rates signed at floor rates are the hardest hit, with an estimated average increase of 15 to 20%. Variable rates with variable payments would instead fall by 5 to 7% on average.
Can I switch lenders at renewal without the stress test?
Yes, for a straight switch: since November 2024, OSFI exempts uninsured mortgages transferred to another federal lender at renewal from the minimum qualifying rate, provided the loan amount and the amortization do not increase. Insured mortgages were already exempt. If you increase the amount or extend the amortization, the test applies again: the higher of 5.25% and your contract rate plus 2%.
What happens if I do not sign my renewal on time?
If you do nothing, your mortgage can renew automatically for another term, without you getting the best rate or the best conditions — the FCAC states this explicitly. Automatic renewal is indicated in the renewal notice. Best practice is to shop a few months before maturity, negotiate with your current lender by showing competing offers, and sign only after comparing the actual payments.
Is it better to extend the amortization at renewal to lower the payment?
It lowers the payment, but it costs more overall. On a $400,000 balance at 3.99%, moving from 20 to 25 years of amortization takes the payment from $2,415 to $2,102, or $313 less a month — but you repay for five extra years and pay much more interest. Extending the amortization also loses the stress-test exemption if you switch lenders. Reserve it for temporary shocks, not as a default strategy.
Does the Bank of Canada's October 28, 2026 decision change my renewal?
The policy rate was raised to 2.50% on Wednesday, October 28, 2026 — a 0.25-point hike, the first change since October 2025 — and the next decision is Wednesday, December 9, 2026. A change in the policy rate directly influences variable rates and banks' prime rate. Fixed rates, however, mainly follow Canadian bond yields and can move before the announcement itself. If your renewal is approaching, a rate hold obtained in advance protects you against an increase while you shop.
Official sources
- Banque du Canada — Impact des renouvellements hypothécaires sur les versements : analyse actualisée (60 % des prêts renouvelés en 2025-2026, +6 % en 2026, +15 à 20 % pour les fixes 5 ans)
- Banque du Canada — La Banque maintient le taux directeur à 2,25 % (2 septembre 2026)
- ACFC (Canada.ca) — Renouveler votre hypothèque : avis 21 jours, magasinage, changement de prêteur
- BSIF — Le BSIF maintient le taux admissible minimal applicable aux prêts hypothécaires non assurés (5,25 % ou taux + 2 %)
- Bank of Canada — Policy rate announcement, October 28, 2026 (quarter-point hike to 2.50%)